窮小子冷眼輯

蔡英文說想想：伊拉克風雲(五)-

巴格達的軍事干預與情報

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http://www.stormmediagroup.com/opencms/review/detail/825a295c-f24c-11e3-b79d-ef2804cba5a1/?uuid=825a295c-f24c-11e3-b79d-ef2804cba5a1

 POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 JUNE 23 2014

其實，讓人震驚的是伊拉克政府軍，沒有抵抗；

這類發展對ISIS，是不是，能夠控制全部的伊拉克；

另言之，在很大程度上，真正的作戰行動，必須在伊拉克境內，同時，也回應該區其他國家；

另外是，美國軍隊剛自伊拉克撤出，這是不可能再重返那裏-伊拉克；

這是清楚的！

是以，有甚麼戰術可以來預防這類狀況?

或是，美國，以及其他國家，可以提供武器與情報；

舉例來說，現在的美軍顧問團到巴格達來強化對ISIS的作戰！

另外，重要的是，我們能夠驅動，其他遜尼派阿拉伯國家，幫助伊拉克，強化合作，這也能夠嚇阻ISIS；

軍事干預與情報支援，僅是自我保護的期望，可能將導致伊拉克政府與ISIS的不合；

換句話說，美國和其他國家可能強化，什葉派阿拉伯國家與反基地組織的遜尼派，特別是，庫德族；

雖然，也將造成伊拉克的分裂，但是，中央政府太弱，也無法有效地與ISIS的作戰；

另言之，伊拉克和阿富汗，還是不能避免反恐！

其實，伊斯蘭國一直是中東地區的穩定威脅，並不完全僅是在伊拉克與敘利亞；

雖然，現在的ISIS的目標是伊拉克，也有可能，同時發動戰鬥在敘利亞！

另言之，伊斯蘭極端分子的風險，還是依存在伊拉克和敘利亞；

換句話說，它將建立一個極端主義的庇護區，同時，威脅其他阿拉伯國家，惡化遜尼派和什葉派之間的矛盾

與驅動伊拉克的自我防衛；

其實，伊拉克政府的腐敗，鎮壓與專制，僅是保障自己人的利益，國家武力已經成為政治工具；

唬爛與說謊，早已經失信於遜尼派；

無情的鎮壓已經失去伊拉克遜尼派，是以，ISIS出現！

簡單來說，伊拉克政府僅是依賴於一個歷史與文化的事實-一個專制的流氓！

是以，美國與其他夥伴，也應該靜悄悄地驅動政權，失去力量，可能將有妥協的空間？

畢竟，基地組織已經不承認極端和激進的ISIS是自己的，而且，伊拉克政府，似乎無力阻止ISIS；

是以，希望美國有一個計劃，以預防伊斯蘭極端分子破壞穩定與安全！

當前，遜尼派叛亂分子已經佔領重要的石油中心，至少，不應該過度相信伊拉克軍隊；

美國利用情報和反恐決心，迅速採取作戰行動，幫助伊拉克發動對ISIS的一個有效的反擊！

IRAQI CRISIS(5):MILITARY INTERVENTION,WITH BAGHDAD'S INTELLIGENCE.
THINK AGAIN BY 蔡英文
POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 JUNE 23 2014

Indeed,what has been shocking that Iraqi government forces did not resist it.
This development, along with the ISIS will be able to control of all of Iraq,or not?
In turn,it will largely be up to Iraq ; at the same time,the real war-fighting action is to respond other countries in this region.
In addition to American forces had been withdrawal from Iraq,is highly unlikely to re-turn back there - IRAQ.It is clear.
As what kind of tactics can be prevent this?
Or,the US,as well as other countries, could provide weapons,and intelligence,for example,such as,now of the US's military advisers to Baghdad to intensify war-fighting against ISIS.
Therefore,the focus on that we can push other Sunni countries to help Iraq increasing cooperation,which can be also threatened by ISIS.
Military intervention and intelligence-supporting are only for self-preservation that will result in the Iraq's government being able to conflict on the ISIS.
In other words,the US and others countries will intensify Shia Arab countries,and and anti-al Qaeda Sunni,in particular,Kurds.While it will also bring about Iraq's division,but the central government is too weak to fight effectively against ISIS,also.
In turn,the Iraq and Afghanistan cannot still being avoided by the War on Terror.
Indeed,the Islamic Nation is still a threat to Middle East stability,and is not absolutely in the Iraq and Syria.
While ISIS's goal is now on Iraq,it will be also simultaneously to start fighting in Syria.
In turn,the rick of the Islamist extremists are still dependent on both Iraq and Syria.
In other words,it will build an extremist sanctuary that will be imultaneously threaten to the other Arab countries ; and  make conflict between Sunni and Shiite even worsen,and push Iraq's self-defense.
In fact,Iraq's government's corrupt,repressive,and authoritarian are just protecting them themselves interests,and National force has become their political tool
The "BIG WORDS" and "LIES" have broken promises to Sunni ; ruthless repression has lost Iraq's Sunnis,so ISIS appeared.
Put simply,Iraq's government just rely on the fact of history and culture - an authoritarian rogue.
As the US and other partners are also quietly driving regime out of power that will have compromise space.
After all,al Qaeda has disowned with ISIS so extreme and aggressive,in addition,Iraq's government seems powerless to stop ISIS.
So,let's hope the US has a plan to prevent Islamist extremists from destroying the stability and security.
The current Sunni insurgents have occupied the important oil hub,at least,the US should not so much confidence in the Iraqi force.
The US uses intelligence and counterterrorism-determination to act rapidly and help Iraq start an effective counteroffensive against ISIS.