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台灣九合一地方選舉戰術評估(上集)   

台灣九合一地方選舉戰術評估(下集)

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 DEC 4 2014

2016年台灣總統大選的衝擊

The nine-in-one regional elections will be critical trends in accordance with Presidential and legislative elections in 2016.In particular,it will become as a starting-power momentum for a DPP victory - Marching toward in power.
Standing on President Ma's the “1992 Consensus,” which this is just historical "one China" of understanding both between the Beijing and Taipei,in turn,the National definition is unclear.However,President Ma's "one China" defines only as tributary country as the P.R.C..
Interestingly,his statement has followed a "Three No’s" strategic deployment of no unification, no independence, and no use of force.
So,Taiwan’s relations with China will likely be a more important issue in the 2016 presidential election,in the past eight years under KMT governance.
The most likely and KMT presidential candidate is Eric Chu,who was as just re-elected for a second term as mayor of " Taipei county",that he will not wander too far from the current strategic deployments by President Ma.
In the end,the implications for cross-strait relations,and U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Indeed,and according with the 2012 presidential election,and after the U.S. official meeting with Tsai Ing-wen : They wonders about whether Tsai Ing-wen,who would be able to continue stability in cross-strait relations.
In other words,logic and reason are simple : she has spoken history and culture too much.In turn,the DPP is lacking of war-fighting commander.
As .S.-Taiwan relations will not be impacted by the Presidental election,or will probably reinforce communication with the DPP.
After all,the United States believes that it is best in the stability of preservative cross-strait relations,in turn ; open is solving hoodlum of shameful history and culture.
Although,Beijing will be quite troubled about the DPP's significant victory,and the return to the presidency.
For instance,Chen Shui-bian,who was the first and only DPP president, was in power from 2000-2008 ; he seeked provocative shame on history and culture,and increased tensions ; and stood for ridiculous independence policies.
But Xi Jinping is insisting on the policy of "peaceful development",so in the short-term,Beijing will be not to change its Taiwan policy and development.In particular,"1992 Consensus" is not reversal during President Ma’s tenure. Because the DPP's "National Consensus" makes no sense.
As the presidential elections near,if the DPP does not accept a age-old of word - "one China”? that the Beijing and the United States will take many means and criticizings to try to block a DPP victory in 2016.

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TACTICAL ASSESSMENT OF TAIWAN'S NINE-IN-ONE REGIONAL ELECTIONS.

THE IMPACT OF TAIWAN'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 2016?

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 DEC 4 2014

 

端視2016年總統和立法委員選舉;

九合一地方選舉可能是關鍵性趨勢;

特別是,民進黨可能當作一個啟動動力,延續勝利-邁向執政!

依據馬總統的“九二共識“,這僅是北京和台北,一個歷史性”一個中國“的理解;

另言之,國家定義不清楚;

然而,馬總統定義的"一個中國",僅是作為中華人民共和國的附庸國!

有趣的是,他的定義說明"三不"-不統,不獨,與不使用武力的策略部署!

所以,在2016年總統大選,台灣與中國的關係,將是國民黨治理八年重要的議題!

比較明顯的可能是,國民黨總統候選人朱立倫,雖然,他才連任第二個任期的台北縣長,

可能不會遠離馬總統的現行策略部署太遠!

最後是,海峽兩岸關係美國與台灣的關係的影響;

其實,依據2012年總統大選中,美國政府高級官員與蔡英文見面之後:

納悶蔡英文是否能夠繼續穩定在海峽兩岸關係?

換句話說,理由與邏輯很簡單:歷史與文化說太多了!

另言之,民進黨缺乏作戰指揮官!

是以,美國與台灣關係不會被總統選舉影響,或可能是強化與民進黨的溝通!

畢竟,美國認為最好的是穩定海峽兩岸關係與保護;

另言之,開放來解決不要臉的歴史與文化的無賴!

雖然,北京可能擔心民進黨的顯著勝利,並重返總統寶座;

舉例來說,陳水扁,第一位也是唯一民進黨的總統,在執政的2000年至2008年,

他追尋不要臉的歴史與文化的挑釁,與增加緊張局勢,主張笑話的獨立政策!

但是,習近平,堅持和平發展政策,所以,在短期內,北京不太可能改變其對台政策與發展;

特別是,在馬總統任期內,不會逆轉九二共識,因為民進黨也沒有國家共識!

隨著總統大選,如果民進黨不接受"一個中國"一個古老的代名詞那;

北京與美國可能有多種手段與批評,嘗試阻擋民進黨在2016年的勝利!

 

 

台灣窮小子是中國國民黨,研究於全球公共政策,所有的意見僅是給蔡英文!

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