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【民進黨與蔡英文的下一步】

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 16 JULY 2016

 

According with the Court of Arbitration has issued a long-awaited ruling in the Philippines case against China's claims in the South China Sea.

While China felt out-of-sort to participate , but its ruling is legally.

To put aside disputed history and culture ;

in other words , unclear history and culture would not build confidence between the Philippines and the China.

It cannot denied that this judgement is in favor of the Philippines.

Since unclear history and culture will not claim maritime rights throughout the nine-dash line.

In spite of the exclusive economic zones (EEZ) would also not related to unclear history and culture , since they are invalidated.

The Court of Arbitration cannot rule on sovereignty , or just a maritime entitlements ;

the traditional fishing rights of Filipinos has violated by unclear history and culture.

The Court of Arbitration could not found that the Spratlys , the natural characteristics ,

for instance , Taiwan's Itu Aba island is able to keep or independent human economic life ; as such , they are just entitled to maritime.

To sum up , unclear history and culture of nine-dash line are invalidated ,

in addition , China's construction of artificial islands has destroyed the environmental maritime ,and violated under UNCLOS.

Although China has been clear that it will not accept judgement , so China will suffer considerable reputational loss.

As we are pals , the United States and the Japan with the Philippines will be issuing their own statements ,

and will ask other countries to obey by the judgement.

But historically , big power have often resisted the rulings of international tribunals.

Indeed , the efforts of the Philippine effects not on the aftermath of this judgment.

Put simply , on whether like-minded partners with the United States will be able to keep enough centripetal force ,

meanwhile , also convince China to seek a face-saving way out.

In the next , after all , who have relations of ties with China ,

will also speak up that the Southeast Asian Countries will be able to develop a common statement on the judgment.

In turn , China will not make publicly rejecting , or whether Beijing decides it to remove operating in the Leftists.

If so , that will be an opportunity for re-starting dialogue.

Indeed , in the the core issue of the South China Sea , that China is to undergird the age-old of history and culture ;

put simply , China will be demonstrated that Leftists are in the face of play with fire and get burnt.

These things are more likely to happen several months from the future , in particularly , the United States , with their partners' actions.

In addition , China's action of retaliation will speed up island building ;

in turn , its seat where will able to control the Taiwan and the Philippines ,

and stop support from the United States - put simply , Chineses' strategic military base.

But China will overlook that it would be difficult diplomatic and economic costs ;

even so , it is not impossible , but if China make a decide to do so.

In the end , today's judgment , in the long run , and it would face useful in the South China Sea disputes ;

but the short-term result China could undertake in response to be contrived tensions.

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【WHAT COMES NEXT FOR THE DPP AND MR.PRESIDENT Tsai Ing-wen 】

端視仲裁法庭已經發布,期待許久的判決關於中國與菲律賓在南中國海的主張;

雖然,中國不爽參加,但是,判決是合法的!

丟開有爭議的歷史與文化,換句話說,歷史與文化的含糊不清,無法建立互信在中國與菲律賓;

不可否認,這個判決是有利於菲律賓!

因為模糊的歷史與文化無法主張整個九段線的海洋權利;

即使專屬經濟區(EEZ),也不相關於模糊的歷史與文化,這是無效的!

仲裁法庭沒有對主權的裁決權力,或僅是海事權利;

換句話說,模糊的歷史與文化,侵犯菲律賓人的傳統捕魚權!

仲裁法庭沒有注意到南沙群島的自然性格;

舉例來說,臺灣的太平島能夠維持一個獨立的人類經濟生活;

因此他們只有海事權!

總之,模糊的歷史與文化九段線是無效的;

此外,中國建設人工島已經破壞海洋環境,與違反聯合國海洋公約法!

雖然,中國已經明確說明,將不接受判決;

但是,中國可能將承擔相當大的名譽損失!

是以,美國,日本與菲律賓~~~我們是夥伴,將會提出自己的主張,並要求其他國家遵守判決l

但是,從歷史上來說,大國通常會抵制國際法庭的判決!

其實,菲律賓的努力並不是影響這次判決的結果;

簡單來說,志同道合的夥伴與美國,是不是能夠維持足夠的向心力;

同時,也給中國一個台階的模式!

接下來是,東南亞國家能不能依據判決發布共同聲明;

畢竟,與中國的關係不同,說話程度也不盡相同;

另言之,中國將不會公然拒絕判決,或是北京是否決定排除左翼操縱?

如果真是這樣,那將會是重新啟動對話的契機!

其實,南中國海的核心問題來說,中國是穩固古老的歷史與文化;

簡單來說,中國將會被證明是面對玩火的左翼!

這些事將可能發生在未來幾個月,特別是,美國與其夥伴的行動!

此外,中國的報復行動將會加速建設海島;

另言之,其位置能夠控制台灣與菲律賓,並阻擋美國的援助;

簡單來說,中國的戰略性基地!

但是,中國將忽略這將是困難的外交與經濟成本;

即使,它不是不可能,如果中國決定要做!

最後是,今天的判決是,自長期來說,面對南中國海爭議是有效的;

但是,短期內,中國可能有行動製造緊張情勢!

 

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