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【鄭秉原說想想】

Aung San Suu Kyi 缺乏策略部署】

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 NOV 8 2015

Although Aung San Suu Kyi has owned supporters of the National political groups in Myanmar ; or overlooked Myanmar’s political situation.

Myanmar's political groups lack of the party’s capacity to fight and govern ; even so,Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi will be probably to win a success-elected,but will lose influence of a strategic failure.

Especially,this is first for citizens will own to participate in a democratic election in Myanmar.

Indeed,the election was a failed deployment in Myanmar ; in turn,overlooked that voters have been pals rather than competitors.

So Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders believe that they will work with other parties after the elections,and they will be oparate each other,or they should not be seen as provocative ; or Aung San Suu Kyi denied to contest with other parties.

While it is difficult to underdtand efforts of Aung San Suu Kyi,and maintains a balance between the political parties,in particular the military ; interestingly,it is support for the lady Aung San Suu Kyi.

Put simply,their election strategy is making situation worse in Myanmar.

Even the reality is that high popularity of Aung San Suu Kyi,who is just attract in biggest support for single political party.

But this single political party is not the powerhouse in Myanmar.In turn,other political parties will do well in their own constituencies.

Worse, despite the single political party does remarkably,but they will remain to win over two-thirds of the contested seats ; Do not forget that the military is guaranteed a quarter of seats.

Therefore,when the dust settles,and Aung San Suu Kyi will face a governing mission,than will find a hotly-contested in partners.

The single political party will not necessarily accept the results of the election,especially,how will it know in lack of reliable election?

Indeed,the political party seems enjoying on a single-party majority in Myanmar,but Aung San Suu Kyi has made her hopes to lead the next government,and who is going to be the president,and sent away the Constitution.

In turn,the Lady will control National power.

So far,whether the military will stand for that the bottom line that any political parties incoming government will need to be able to get along with the military.

After all,National transformations are breakable,and needs years of compromise.

The point is that Myanmar does not have one major difference in the military, political , and economic elites.

Now,Aung San Suu Kyi,she is a politician,in particular,in the political transition - what is Aung San Suu Kyi a sign?

800px-Suu-kyi-gives-speech-in-khawmu

PICTURE SOURCE:
Wikimedia user Htoo Tay Zar, used under a creative commons license.

【鄭秉原說想想】

Aung San Suu Kyi 缺乏策略部署】

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 NOV 8 2015

Aung San Suu Kyi -雖然,擁有緬甸政治團體的支持,或忽略緬甸的政治局勢;

緬甸政治團體缺乏政黨作戰與管理能力,

即使,諾貝爾和平獎得主Aung San Suu Kyi可能贏得一個選舉勝利,但將有策略失敗的影響!

特別是,這是第一次,緬甸公民擁有參與民主選舉的機會;

其實,緬甸的選舉是一類錯誤部署,另言之,忽略選民即夥伴,而不是競爭對手!

是以Aung San Suu Kyi 與其他領導者認為,他們將與其他政黨在選舉後,能夠相互運作,

或不應該被視為挑釁;

換句話說,其他政黨不允許懷疑他們!

雖然,很困難地了解Aung San Suu Kyi 的努力,以維護政黨之間的平衡;

特別是軍隊,有趣的是,它是明確支持Aung San Suu Kyi!

簡單來說,他們的競選策略是讓緬甸的狀況變得更糟糕;

即使,現實狀況是,Aung San Suu Kyi 的高人氣,僅是吸引單一政黨的全力支持!

但在緬甸,這個單一政黨並不是最強的;

另言之,其他政黨在自己的選區做的很好!

更糟糕的是,即使單一政黨確實很好,但還是不能保證贏得超過三分之二的席次;

不要忘記,軍隊仍然掌握四分之一的席次!

因此,當塵埃落定,Aung San Suu Kyi 將面對一個治理任務,然後,將會發現一類激烈爭議在夥伴;

單一政黨不一定會接受選舉,特別是,怎麼會知道一個沒有可靠的投票,

即便如此,Aung San Suu Kyi 會不會接受結果呢?

其實,緬甸政黨似乎很喜歡一個政黨,

但是,Aung San Suu Kyi 已經明確希望領導下一任政府,與堅持成為總統,與打發掉憲法;

另言之,這位女士將掌握國家權力!

目前,還不知道軍方是不是會忍受,但底線是任何進入政府的政黨必須能夠與軍方;

畢竟,國家轉型是不穩定的,需要多年的痛苦的妥協!

重點是,緬甸沒有一個主要區別在軍事,政治與經濟精英,或如,台灣;

現在,Aung San Suu Kyi, 她是一個政治家,特別是在政治過渡期;

什麼是Aung San Suu Kyi 的標誌?

 

 

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