20141206002217  

策略解析:台灣改變中的政治

與民進黨打翻天印在九合一選舉(全文)

 

A person,台灣窮小子 was on the Snow Mountains to view a picture of Tsai Ing-wen in December 13,2014.

Taiwan's nine-in-one elections will be with substantial National implications.

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 DEC 19 2014

WHY DID THE KMT COULD HAS LOST?

Indeed,this has spoken too much with shameful history and culture.In other words,why the KMT encountered precedented defeat.
This should be the Taiwan's central government's performance ; FEELING OUT-OF-SORT with Taiwanese - 竹篙倒菜刀.
For instance:
1,History and culture "BIG WORDS" ARE LACKING OF NATIONAL ENERGY STRATEGY-DEPLOYMENT FOR THE FUTURE - NUCLEAR POWER.
2,History and culture "BIG WORDS" and "CORRUPTIONS".
3,Taiwanese hard wages are being exploited by shameful history and culture.
4,Shameful history and culture have inflicted serious damage on the National food security.
Despite that the central government cannot be responsible for all of the opportunities,in particular,counterattack Shameful history and culture ; that is why impressive inability exists in Taiwanese,and is also unnecessary to make fun of the DPP.
The KMT's political wrestling,in longer term,speeds up its appearance ; for instance,the feeling out-of-sort between President Ma and Speaker Wang Jin-pyng.
The next,President Ma Ying-jeou is lacking of National commander-in-chief of the style of political leadership,especially,his decision-deployment is lacking of Ending of history compromise.For instance,immediately,sets former president Mr.Chen Shui-Bian free - challenging history!
In turn,President Ma Ying-jeou has not tendency to stand firm on the National Constitution principles and because of his strong convictions come from shameful history and culture.
After all, most of National strategic deployments require Ending of hisotry compromise and support to succeed,but President Ma did not understand this and perhaps that his political concept is shameful history and culture in the first place,and forget hs is the National commander-in-chief.
Moreover,Taiwanese have serious doubts about the KMT’s the China's policy.
Indeed,this is biggest,and the deepest fear for Taiwanese ; Nation is fading away ; but not oppose economic policy connecting with China.
In other words,China's policy eventually turn spoiled economic growth with Taiwan that it cannot be accepted by Taiwanese.
For instance,the Sunflower Movement,the question is to overdependence on China,that will lead to limit Taiwan’s National political choices.
Lastly, the KMT forgets enjoying to foster its own war-fighting commanders,or enjoys recommending "AIRBOME FORCE",so as the results show "AIRBOME FORCE" can hardly combine with local peopless' condidence,who particularly have spoken history and culture too much.And it made some mistakes in deployment.
Besides,the KMT has not intensified deployment on economic issues and career opportunity,especially,generational imbalance.
For instance,Lien Sheng-wen who is a typical second-generation politician,but Lien’s image of "BIG WORDS" was really frightened Taiwanese longing for political reform.
It is reasonable to assume that hope to contribute to the KMT's review,and it is not clear whether history and culture are indeed in play shameless ; but an individual assessment is necessary to find the answer after election.

TAIWAN'S CHANGING POLITICAL DOMAIN

According with the nine-in-one elections,the KMT would have been defeated unexpectedly,and just won New Taipei county,but lost the other five municipalities to the commanded power.
In other words,the KMT had lost predominant war-fighting superiority,yet,the DPP has largely matched in number of seats country-wide,including Taipei City,Kaohsiung City,Tainan City,Taichung City,Yilan County,Yunlin County, and Chiayi County.
Overall, the results are Historical precedent beat for the KMT, in turn,only the presidential palace persists for KMT after its failure.
If as conventionally,the KMT is controlled by 55 percent of warfare arme,and the DPP is led by 45 percent of the Homeland force,however,this did not show in elections.
As no doubt the DPP is successful in the battle ; and surpassed the KMT,which establishment of an optimistic future for the 2016 presidential election.
In addition to the Taipei,and the tactic focus on the victories in Taichung and Taoyuan municipalities ; intensify DPP’s peoples' preference,and political war-fighting superiority and change Taiwan political dominion.
While Chu Li-lun won,but his winning percentage approximate 20 percent short of expectations.
This is best demonstration for changing of the Taiwan political dominion.
In Taipei City,the KMT has faded away,approximately 20 percent of votes.
In other words,the KMT has lost political dominion in this elections,so mayor 柯文哲 who can can easily take over disappearing KMT votes.
Besides,the DPP's victory has deeped National strategic definations for Taiwan's future.In particular,the possible emergence of a third political force will speed up the National transformation that counterattack history and culture violence extremism and terrorism.In other words,victory can relieve politicalized history and culture,and start a new era for civic politics in Taiwan.
In the end,in the past few years,and for instance,the Sunflower and White Shirt Warrior social movement are prominent Ending of history winners.
Their Ending of history gave unequivocal vote of non-confidence to the Ma administration.
But President Ma is willing to recognize National strategic deployment failure to win Taiwanese confidence ; put simply,exemplifies what political responsibility is National Security Commitment,rather than "BIG WORDS" of shameful history and culture.

LOOKS FORWARD TO THE 2016 PRESTIENTAL ELECTION

Looking back in the history,former Presidents Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian both approaching the end of their duties,or faced a predicament of power transition.
Put simply,they did not choose to Ending of history and abandonment,so that ultimately lost governing power.
So,President Ma has surrendered the KMT chairman,and promised the KMT's reform,but the extent to which also surrendered the National President ; in other words,President Ma will be faced "HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF".
Indeed,the KMT is still having an opportunity to win the 2016 presidential election,in particular,a quick and absolute power transition to pushing the inheritor is audacious to hold National commitment and responsibility,rather than history and culture.
Although consequence of the KMT's failure is that transfer of national political power to the DPP in the 2016 presidential election,in turn,the suddenly increased pressure for shameful history and culture.
According with the DPP's victory commits Tsai Ing-wen to march of the 2016 presidential election,but the bigger challenge of her for China's strategic deployment,in particular,satisfies both between the United States and the China.
Secondly,Taiwan's economic deployment ; the DPP did not select keeping a integration with China,but it must own a war-fighting model to push satisfactory economic performance ; rather than history and culture.
Moreover,the unfairness of shameful history and culture are the most intractable issues ; so,the predicament of unfairness is still being broken by Taiwanese expectations.
As from now on,Tsai Ing-wen should remember the historical single of 13 seats - 竹篙倒菜刀,because Taiwanese dislike the KMT,but because Taiwanese needs,even recognize a real National Commander-In-Chief,rather than leadership of the history and culture.
Indeed,Taipei city's victory which tactical single is to election of war-fighting intention signifies to remain politically independent,and finds outside the institutional framework.
As given that political trend has shifted to the DPP's favor,perhaps that the DPP will be able to think what to do,nor what the the KMT do so ; winning the presidential and Congressal election in 2016.
The prediction is made from the political Congressal election,in which followed the nine-in-one elections,peoples' attention will be passed on the Presidential election,therefore,how to intensify political effect,and tell people that will be impacted by their option of the presidential candidate.
Put simply,such a "multiplying effect" will intensify the blue-green competition in the Presidential election.
In other words,unless takes the split-voting,and the DPP is not only winning the the Presidential election,that will also be anle to win the majority-seats in the Congress.
For instance,In the Presidential election in 2012,the KMT won 48% of votes with 63 seats in the Congress ; in contrast, the DPP,yet,the DPP also won 44 % of votes but just 36 seats in the Congress.
So,if the DPP would like to be reversed,that the DPP must have Ending of history of National Commitment.

CONCLUSION:

Indeed,the KMT's lost the election only because Taiwanese does not like the communistic country ; in other words,this is the "GLOBAL CONSENSUS".
However,shameful history and culture are mostly to divide Taiwan,and maintain its narrow-minded of the National freedom and independence,and ignore economic integration.
In turn,this is different from blind to close a country and country-and-country relations.
In particular,the Taiwan's media adopted the age-old of the legacy of the political party,and they do not want to face shameful history and culture conditions.
Put simply,we can be found in the fact that Pro-President Ma Ying-jeou and Anti-President Ma Ying-jeou ; rather than orientated as option both between the R.O.C. and the P.R.C..
After all,Beijing cannot be no change in its Taiwan policy ; in other words,the DPP must have National initiation to exceed the "1992 Consensus" .
So,however,the DPP won the nine-in-one elections,but whether it will be emboldened to stand solid on Taiwanese,or not ;rather than history and culture.
Ultimately,one thing can be sure that the Beijing and the KMT should work to injustice of the history and culture ;

that is why convince Taiwanese people,even Hone Kong people --

"NATIONAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IS NOT RELATED TO SHAMEFUL HISTORY AND CULTURE".

For Taiwan,it should be pushing priority forward the cross-strait agreements on trade in goods, and taxation.

 

jones_por  

STRATEGIC ANALYSIS:

TAIWAN'S CHANGING POLITICAL,

AND THE DPP IS EVERYTHING TURNED ON ITS HEAD IN THE NINE-IN-ONE ELECTIONS.

台灣窮小子,一個人在雪山,2014年十二月十三日看蔡英文的照片

台灣的九合一選舉有國家重大的影響

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 DEC 19 2014

為什麼中國國民黨會輸呢?

其實,這就是不要臉的歷史與文化說太多了;

換句話說,為什麼中國國民黨遭遇一個有前例可循的挫敗!

這應該是對台灣的中央政府的表現,台灣人的不爽-竹篙倒菜刀!

舉例來說:
一,歷史與文化的唬爛,缺乏未來國家能源策略部署-核能;
二,歷史與文化的唬爛與腐敗;
三,不要臉的歴史與文化剝削台灣人辛苦的薪資;
四,不要臉的歴史與文化重創國家食品安全;

即使中央政府不會完全承擔所有的責任,特別是反擊不要臉的歴史與文化;

是以無能的印象存在於台灣人,但民進黨也無須看笑話!

長期以來,中國國民黨的政治鬥爭,加速破壞自身的形象;舉例來說,馬總統和王金平院長之間的不爽!

接下來是,馬英九總統缺乏國家總司令的政治領導風格;

尤其是,他的決策部署,缺乏終結歷史的妥協;舉例來說,挑戰歷史,立刻釋放陳前總統水扁先生!

另言之,馬總統不會堅守國家憲法原則;因為他堅定的信念是來自不要臉的歴史與文化!

畢竟,大多數國家策略部署需要終結歷史的妥協與支持,才能成功;

但是,馬總統不了解這一點;

可能是他的政治理念是不要臉的歴史與文化擺在首位;

忘記他是國家總司令!

此外,台灣人嚴重懷疑中國國民黨的中國政策;

其實,這是最大的,深切的,台灣人恐懼-國家消失了;並不是反對經濟政策聯結中國市場!

換句話說,中國政策,最終將變成債留台灣的經濟成長;那不是台灣人能夠接受的!

舉例來說,太陽花運動,問題是依賴中國,可能將導致限制台灣的國家政治選擇;

最後是,中國國民黨忘記培養自己的作戰指揮官;

或僅喜歡引進空降部隊;是以,結果說明空降部隊是很困難地連接到在地民眾的互信;

特別是,歷史與文化說太多,這是部署失誤!

另外是,中國國民黨並沒有強化部署在經濟問題和就業機會;特別是世代不公平!

舉例來說,連勝文一個典型的第二代政治從業人員;

但是,唬爛的連戰形象嚇壞了台灣人嚮往支持政治改革!

這是合理的假設;

希望有助於國民黨的檢討,目前不清楚歴史與文化是不是否真的在玩不要臉;

但個人的研究在選舉後將尋找答案!

台灣改變中政治版圖

端視在九合一選舉,中國國民黨出乎意料的慘敗,僅保留台北縣,並失去其他五個直轄市的指揮權;換句話說,中國國民黨已經失去主動作戰優勢;然而,民進黨已經,在很大程度上,取得全國多數席次,包括,台北市,高雄市,台南市,台中市,宜蘭縣,雲林縣,嘉義縣;全面性來說,結果是有歷史慣例擊敗中國國民黨;

另言之,只有中國國民黨的失敗後,僅是保有總統府!

如果就傳統來說,中國國民黨掌握百分之五十五的作戰部隊,

與民進黨領導百分之四十五的鄉土武力,但是,這ㄧ次沒有出現在選舉;

是以,毫無疑問民進黨是作戰成功,超越中國國民黨,建立未來在2016年樂觀的總統選舉!

除了台北市,戰術重點是取得台中市與桃園市的勝利;強化民進黨的民眾青睞與政治作戰優勢,改變台灣的政治版圖!

雖然,朱立倫贏了,但是,他的勝率卻失去預期大概有百分之二十;這是台灣的政治版圖改變的最好證明!

在台北市,中國國民黨已經消失,大概有百分之二十的選票;

換句話說,在這次選舉,中國國民黨已經喪失政治版圖;

所以,市長柯文哲很容易接收消失的中國國民黨選票!

另外是,民進黨的勝利對台灣未來有深度的國家策略定義;

特別是,第三政治勢力可能出現,加速國家轉型,以反擊暴力歷史與文化極端主義與恐怖主義;

換句話說,勝利可以緩解歷史與文化政治化,與啟動ㄧ個新世代台灣公民政治!

最後是,在過去的一年裡,舉例來說,太陽花與白衫軍的社會運動是明顯的終結歷史的贏家;

他們的終結歷史,明確投票,說明對馬政府的不信任!

但是,馬總統願意承認國家策略部署不能贏得台灣人的互信;

簡單來說,在一個民主國家,什麼樣的政治責任是國家安全承諾的體現;而不是不要臉的歴史與文化的唬爛!

期待2016年的總統大選

回顧歷史,前總統李登輝和陳水扁都是接近其任期結束時,或面對權力轉移的窘境;

簡單來說,他們沒有選擇終結歷史與放棄,以致,最後失去執政權力!

所以,馬總統辭去國民黨主席一職,並承諾國民黨改革,但仍不清楚在多大程度上,也辭去國家元首ㄧ職,

換句話說,馬總統將會面臨歷史重演!

其實,中國國民黨還是有機會能贏得2016年總統大選,

特別是,終結歷史,迅速與純粹的權力轉移來驅動繼任者勇敢地承擔國家承諾與責任,而不是依循在歷史與文化!

雖然,中國國民黨的失敗後果是民進黨在2016年的總統選舉將贏得國家政治權力轉移,

另言之,不要臉的歴史與文化突然增加的壓力!

端視民進黨的勝利可能承諾蔡英文進軍2016年總統大選;

但是,她最大的挑戰是中國策略部署,特別是,面對美國與中國!

第二是,台灣的經濟部署,DDP不喜歡與中國的聯繫,

但必須擁有一個作戰模式來驅動,充分的經濟表現,而不是歷史與文化!

另外是,不要臉的歴史與文化的不公平是最不聽話的問題-打破不公平的困境,才是台灣人的期望!

是以,從現在起,蔡英文應該記得十三席的歷史信號-竹篙倒菜刀;

因為台灣人不是不喜歡中國國民黨,

而是因為台灣人需要,甚至理解到一個真正的國家總司令,而不是歷史與文化的領導!

其實,台北市的勝利,其戰術信號是,選舉的作戰目的是保持政治獨立與發現體制外的框架;

是以,有鑑於政治趨勢的轉向對民進黨有利,或許想想,做國民黨所做不到,以贏得總統大選與國會選舉在2016年;

預測總統與國會選舉,其中,隨著九合一大選,民眾的注意力將會轉移到總統大選;

因此,如何強化政治效果與告訴民眾的選擇總統候選人的影響力!

簡單來說“倍增效應”將強化藍綠顏色在總統大選的競爭!

換句話說,除非採取分裂投票,民進黨不僅將贏得總統大選,也能夠贏得多數國會席次;

舉例來說,在2012年總統大選,國民黨贏得百分四十八得票數與六十三個國會席次;

與此相反,雖然,民進黨也贏得百分之四十四,但這結果只有三十六個國會席次;

所以,如果民進黨想要逆轉,那必須有終結歷史的國家承諾!

結論:

其實,國民黨敗選,只是因為台灣人不喜歡共產主義的國家;換句話說,這是全球共識!

然耳,不要臉的歴史與文化大多是分裂台灣來保持狹隘的國家自由與獨立,與漠視經濟整合;

另言之,這是盲目的鎖國,不同與國家與國家關係!
特別是,台灣媒體使用古老的政黨遺產才是主要的台灣問題;而不願意面對不要臉的歷史與文化因素!

簡單來說,可以發現一個事實:喜歡馬英九總統與不爽馬英九總;

統而不是定位在中華民國與中華人民共和國的選項!

畢竟,北京不會改變台灣政策;換句話說,民進黨必須要有超越“九二共識”的國家倡議!

所以,民進黨雖然贏了九合一大選,但是不是有穩定的台灣人底氣,而不是歷史與文化;

最後是,有一件事可以確定:

北京與國民黨應該努力在歷史與文化的不公平;

如此一來,才能說服台灣人,甚至,香港人-國家經濟整合是不相關於歷史與文化的不要臉;

對於台灣來說,應該是優先驅動海峽兩岸貨物貿易與財稅協議!

 

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