窮小子冷眼輯

【PUTINISM PARADE】

【ARMATA IN THE UKRAINE】

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 MAY 10 2015

According with Russian servicemen drive T-14 "Armata" tanks in Red Square in central Moscow , Russia ,

for the Victory Day parade , during , May 7, 2015.

Concern is to what the situation will be in the Ukraine ? Nothing different - "the Armata along the border" !

In particular , the Russia's regular army units are parading.

Tension is inevitable , or can expect continuation of cold war , no stabiility and security situations - a frozen relation.

This is a drama of history and culture.

Although the Minsk ceasefire - agreement brokered between Ukraine and Russia's regular army units by German Chancellor Angela Merkel ,

that remains weak . Shelling between Ukrainian and the Russia's regular army units never stopped , now it spikes up.

For instance , the heavy weapons have not been withdrawn.

Undoubtedly , both sides of Ukraine and Russia's regular army units do not want the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to intervene.

So , what comes next in the future?

Indeed , the Russian military has kept and provided comprehensive command-and-control in the Ukraine ,

especially , warriors , all whose are not only the Kremlin options , and are also Russian President Putin's options.

As Moscow woild be not likely to start war that this means to spend more money , in particaulr , they will fire off a hostile situation if occupy Ukraine.
Beyond that , starting war will also fire off more bigger Western countries sanctions ;

so , apparently , the Russia's President Putin does not want to see these situations.

Put simply , the Russia's president Putin cannot be ruled the ceasefire out ,

after all , both sides wishes a large-scale fighting that how to make a different option - just looking forward to Putin creates the potential for astonishing.

The next will be that the Ukraine will be devolution of authority to regional officials.

Indeed , this is also the Western countries and the United States hope for.

But the Russia's president Putin will be inclined to "a frozen relation" , continuation of cold war , no stabiility and security situations -

forced the Ukraine is to stabilize a settlement of One history and culture that Nation , rather than the Western countries.

For instance , Moscow annexed Crimea where is as well as counterattacking the Ukrainian government ,

and in order to resolve a difficult history and culture reform agenda , meanwhild , make the Ukrainian understands itself in predicament now.

For the Russia's president Putin part , "a frozen relation" will not be unwelcome ;

and Ukrainian instead prefer to bear economic burden.

Therefore , for the predictable future , we do not unnecessary on over - surprising ;

both sides of Ukraine and Russia will not break out , because they do not bet on unfortunate history and culture.

【普丁進行曲】【刺蟲在烏克蘭】

端視2015年5月7日勝利日遊行，位在莫斯科市中心，紅場，俄羅斯軍人駕駛T-14ARMATA坦克！

值得注意的是，烏克蘭情勢將是甚麼？

沒有甚麼不同－刺蟲在邊界，特別是，俄羅斯正規部隊出擊！

緊張情勢是無可避免，或能預期的是持續的冷戰，沒有穩定與安全的狀況－凍結的關係！

這就是歷史與文化的戲碼！

雖然德國總理Angela Merkel 斡旋於烏克蘭和俄羅斯正規部隊之間的明斯克協議仍然虛弱，

還是無法阻擋烏克蘭和俄羅斯正規部隊之間的砲擊－現在，它卡住了！

舉例來說，重型武器部署並沒有撤退！

無庸置疑，烏克蘭和俄羅斯正規部隊雙方不希望歐洲安全組織介入！

那未來怎麼走呢?

其實，俄羅斯軍方一直保持與提供全面性指揮和控制在烏克蘭，特別是戰士；

這類不僅是克里姆林宮的選項，也是俄羅斯總統普丁的選擇！

是以莫斯科不很有可能發動戰爭，這將意味著花更多的錢；

特別是，佔領烏克蘭，可能引爆一個敵對狀況！

除此之外，發動戰爭也將引爆更大的西方國家制裁，所以，俄羅斯總統普丁顯然地，不想看到這類狀況！

簡單來說，俄羅斯總統普丁不會排除停火；

畢竟，雙方不希望大規模的戰鬥，那如何做出不同選擇？

只有期待普丁創造讓人震驚的潛力！

下一個可能是烏克蘭將轉移權力給地方官員，其實，這也是美國與西歐國家的希望；

但是，俄羅斯總統普丁可能較傾向凍結關係，持續的冷戰，沒有穩定與安全的狀況，

迫使烏克蘭，以穩定解決一個國家歷史與文化，而不是西方國家！

舉例來說，吞併克里米亞，克里姆林宮作為反擊烏克蘭政府，以解決困難的歷史與文化改革議程，

同時，讓烏克蘭了解現在的窘境！

就其俄羅斯總統普丁來說，凍結關係未必不受歡迎，可能反而願意分擔經濟負擔；

因此，在可預期的未來，不用過份驚訝，烏克蘭和俄羅斯還不會撕破臉；

不用賭注在不幸的歷史與文化！