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伊拉克何去何從?

 

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 NOV 3 2014

NOW IS NOT THE TIME , AND IRAQ CAN WIN BATTLE

While a sitting prime minister's decision to withdraw,and despite that it was a necessary,but not a progress step forward for Iraq.
Withdrawing means that it is no longer an obstruction to reforming Iraqi political system,including feeling out-of-sort with Shi,in particular,the Kurds return to Iraq.
We just do not know what specifically they can be accepted,perhaps that they have three critical condition:
1,Changing to a federalism ; decentralization
2,Limiting the power of the central government
3,Completely transforming Iraq's National security force to ensure that they cannot be used as a tool of repression.
Indeed,that condition will be easy,but so tough to execute.
Iraq is lacking of pragmatic and intelligent,administrative commander ; even an open political leader.At this point is more similar with Taiwan.
Moreover,is crazy to Shi,after all,the demands of Kurdish and Sunni seem reasonable.
This single shows that negotiations ; as it from acting effectively Iraq now faces that they need constitutional amendments.However,it takes a long time,and argumentative.
In other words, Iraq still has a long way to go.
The biggest challenge now is that how to train the Iraqis starting the fight against Sunni groups and ISIS.
Especially,the political reforms which makes sense,thus,will have the biggest impact remain to ensure jointed military operation.
Absolutely,the political reforms will not have a suitable end,that is why someone is going to have to be the United States.
So the next decision in Iraq will need a determined American involvement for success.
The critical is going to be for the United States to lay out for a unified whole counterattack.
Eventually,withdrawing was a a good first step,now it is up to partners and the U.S. to keep them going.

lead  

WHAT PATH TO TAKE,IN IRAQ?

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 NOV 3 2014

現在還不是時候,伊拉克能夠打贏!

雖然,現任總理已經決定退出,即使,它是必要性;

但不是伊拉克向前邁出的進步!

退出僅是意味不再是阻礙伊拉克政治制度改革;

包括,什葉派的不爽,特別是,庫德族重返伊拉克!

我們不知道具體是什麼能夠被接納,可能有三個關鍵元素

一,聯邦制的轉型與權力下放;

二,限制中央政府的權力;

三,徹底轉型伊拉克的國家安全武力,以確保他們不能被用來作為鎮壓工具!

其實這元素很容易,但是非常困難地執行!

伊拉克缺乏務實的,聰明的指揮官,甚至,一個公開的政治領袖;

這一點與台灣非常類似!

此外,非常離譜的是什葉派,畢竟,庫德族與遜尼派的要求還很合理!

這信號顯示是談判;

是以,現在面臨有效的作用是修改國家憲法,雖然,很浪費時間與有爭議!

換句話說,伊拉克有很長的路要走!

現在最大的挑戰是如何訓練伊拉克民眾,啟動對遜尼派與ISIS的作戰;

尤其是,政治改革,它是有道理的;

如此一來,聯合軍事行動才能確保變數的最大影響力!

當然,政治改革可能不會有一個合適的終結;

這就是為什麼有人希望美國幫忙!

因此,伊拉克下一個決定,需要一個堅定的成功的美國介入;

其中的關鍵是要為美國奠定一個統一的,整體反擊!

最後是,退出是一個很好的第一步;

現在是讓夥伴與美國去處理!

 

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