窮小子冷眼輯

蔡英文說想想-

預測俄羅斯總統普丁的戰術部署

本文也與台灣小站站長恆愛台分享:

您常說:"台灣派",哪個台灣派扯糟糕的歷史與文化呢?只有蛋頭與屁孩才會捧神主牌!

您永遠不會了解"台灣派"的戰力!因為沒有頭腦,沒有想法,甚至,沒有靈魂!

FORCAST  TACTICAL DEPLOYMENT  ABOUT  THE RUSSIA'S PRESIDENT PUTIN.

While the Russia's president Putin ordered military deplpyment om the Ukraine's border.including the total 150,000 troops,so,it cannot denied that it was clearly a provocative act.In particular,since the ending Winter Olympics?
Obviously,now,it may be a false single operation,in spite of Moscow has approved the use of military force in Ukraine,and recall their the Russia's Ambassador from the U.S..
In addition,Crimea's new Prime Minister,himself recognizes who is a Russian citizen,and ask for helped for the Russia.
And than,re-comparison with the U.S. President Obama warning,which will show predictions :

1,Why Russia does not give it up?
Russia's National core interests in Crimea are biggest than history and culture,in particular, Slavonic's paramountcy and pride.
The naval base at Sevastopol is also Russia's only warm water naval base,where its primary through Bosphorus straits of extending force in the Mediterranean. Especially,they can get through with Syria.
the lease agreement between the Russia and Ukraine regarding the base is still valid until 2047.
Simply put,Crimea's naval base is finished as a global dream with the Russia.

2,Why Ukraine hold in Crimea's arms?
Crimea, is homeland sovereign Ukrainian,also,National option.In particular,it is likely to a Russia's family,and as state of Texas is belong to the U.S.,not belong to the Mexico.
It is true that many areas are avidly with Russia,just much of race does not want to become Russia's citizens.
Besides,the Russia's president Putin has never acknowledged all agreements signed during 90's,in 20 century.Because of at that time of the Russis was poorest.
Crimea is a beautiful place located on the Black Sea,in a while,it is also part of Ukraine's homeland sovereign,where it is largely self governed,and owns over half of the population are ethnic Russians.
So,it is so tricky,and the U.S.and british cannot be helped,also.
Especially,in 1992,after the collapse of the Soviet Unions,Crimea decided to join the newly independent country of Ukraine.
Indeed,we cannot blame the Russia's president Putin,if he did not order,that it may fire off the global condemnations.
Military deployment also becomes a important Russia's military property,and reduce Russia's national security threats.
Perhaps most importantly, annexation of Crimea will mean that speeds up European integration,and that will not be forgotten of history.

Finally, 台灣窮小子 forcasts that the Russia and Putin feel that they do have nothing left to lose.

If Professor Mr. 陳一新 see anything else I forcast wrong, please let me know.

蔡英文說想想-預測俄羅斯總統普丁的戰術部署

POSTED BY 台灣窮小子 MARCH 3 2014

雖然,俄羅斯總統普丁下令軍事部署在烏克蘭邊界,總兵力約十五萬;

不可否認,顯然是一種挑釁行為,特別是,在冬季奧運會結束後;

平心而論,現在可能僅是一類假信號操作,即使莫斯科批准使用武力在烏克蘭,並招回美國的俄羅斯大使!

另外是,克里米亞總理承認是俄羅斯公民,與要求俄羅斯的幫助;

然後,再比對美國總統Obama的警告,可能顯示的預測:

一,為什麼俄羅斯不放棄?

俄羅斯在克里米亞的國家核心利益大於歷史與文化,特別是,斯拉夫的優越與驕傲;

在Sevastopol的海軍基地,也是俄羅斯唯一的不凍海軍基地,其主要穿過博斯普魯斯海峽,發展地中海武力,尤其是,聯繫敘利亞;

俄羅斯與烏克蘭關於基地的租賃協議還是有效,以降至2047年;

簡單地說,克里米亞海軍基地是俄羅斯的全球夢!

二,為什麼烏克蘭擁抱克里米亞?

烏克蘭的國土主權是克里米亞,也是國家選項,特別是一個俄羅斯家庭;

正如,德州是美國的,而不是屬於墨西哥!

這是真的,許多地區都熱切地與俄羅斯親近,只有少數族群,不想要變成俄羅斯公民;

另外是,俄羅斯總統普丁從來不承認二十世紀九零年代的所有協議,因為當時的蘇聯是最窮的!

克里米亞是位於黑海一個美麗的地方,同時,它也是烏克蘭的國土主權的一部分,在很大程度上是半自治,並擁有超過一半的人口是俄羅斯人;

所以,這才很傷腦筋,美國與英國也幫不上忙!

尤其是,1992年蘇聯垮台後,克里米亞決定加入新獨立國家-烏克蘭;

其實,不能怪罪俄羅斯總統普丁,如果,他不下令,那可能引爆全球譴責!

軍事部署,也可作為一個重要的俄羅斯軍事資產,與降低俄羅斯的國家安全威脅!

也許最重要的是兼併克里米亞,期將意味,加快歐洲整合,這將是不會被忘記的歷史!

最後,台灣窮小子預測俄羅斯與普丁認為已經沒有什麼好失去!

如果,陳一新教授看到什麼,我預測錯了,請讓我知道,謝謝您!